Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 10.917675 12.532878 14.278282 16.301225 18.577838 21.057185 23.958157
2025-03-23 8.683503 10.891059 13.465689 16.676497 20.558579 25.084898 30.745203
2025-03-30 7.617836 10.109883 13.160105 17.142111 22.174148 28.289850 36.249722
2025-04-06 6.548052 9.153040 12.485188 17.018934 22.979349 30.494875 40.626743
2025-04-13 5.451632 7.991743 11.374096 16.151370 22.658369 31.135604 42.923740
2025-04-20 4.985588 7.615064 11.239358 16.524025 23.941010 33.872547 48.044800
2025-04-27 4.580331 7.268450 11.093805 16.837327 25.121741 36.494291 53.105883
2025-05-04 4.118698 6.784246 10.697072 16.740365 25.688871 38.268149 57.053709
2025-05-11 3.684541 6.292490 10.237158 16.497025 26.000877 39.664766 60.500591
2025-05-18 3.373523 5.959133 9.980470 16.523932 26.689275 41.607921 64.793618
2025-05-25 3.137504 5.721378 9.846468 16.717626 27.622266 43.933004 69.729522
2025-06-01 2.881116 5.423021 9.587762 16.687008 28.192202 45.723964 73.927935
2025-06-08 2.611406 5.081114 9.238466 16.496798 28.516792 47.185756 77.746913
2025-06-15 2.431980 4.880904 9.108292 16.654242 29.401730 49.549904 83.061468
2025-06-22 2.335633 4.820633 9.208559 17.198103 30.936677 52.991287 90.194058
2025-06-29 2.138045 4.551104 8.919285 17.047291 31.296473 54.559064 94.400968
2025-07-06 1.858463 4.094636 8.256094 16.187475 30.390620 54.009743 95.139773
2025-07-13 1.775015 4.017206 8.280391 16.557663 31.624458 57.036304 101.852821
2025-07-20 1.690651 3.929284 8.276746 16.872674 32.771613 59.958786 108.500809
2025-07-27 1.563311 3.738908 8.061121 16.775136 33.169313 61.616233 113.074477
2025-08-03 1.431013 3.524199 7.780103 16.531477 33.281470 62.776431 116.833239
2025-08-10 1.339032 3.388355 7.645088 16.558388 33.888894 64.818230 122.182549
2025-08-17 1.270917 3.299240 7.597742 16.752460 34.815225 67.455488 128.664009